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Thursday, August 8, 2013

ANALYSIS OF TESLA

Back Ground


Co-Founder and key success factor
I do not doubt that the key driver of Tesla is at a one man show of the CEO and Co-Founder ,  Elon Musk.  Elon manages the innovation of the tech company in set up its Goal setting.  Elon has successful story in his former company Pay Pal, he was the co founder of Pay Pal.Elon is also involved in space x. Company which is concerning in advancement of rocket Tech.
Elon interest are in space, clean energy and internet. He thought himself with computer programming when he was a child.
Elon is also supporting his cousin clean energy business at Solar City. Solar City is the biggest solar energy project in USA. Elon collaborates with solar city to support battery equipment for Tesla's Vehicle. I think elon should move to Germany, the nation with biggest solar energy production.  

Business Model
The company applies an integrated innovation in material science, internet and clean energy.
The company produces electric power train system for major player in vehicle maker such as Toyota, BMW, Mercedez Benz and Daimler. The company provides all spare parts and builds supercharger network for charging at several cities, provide retail and service center. The business model could engage the customer. The company is also providing resale value guarantee for the customer to boost revenue with such financing program.   
The electric car which has been produced is Tesla Roadster. The available models of roadster are model x and model s. The car is built for premium segment because it is an electric sport car.

Recent Condition
Tesla begins to produce vehicle for major player company. I think Elon do different strategy in order to reduce competition with major player such as Toyota or BMW. In 2013, Elon plans to produce 40,000 vehicles, a sport sedan model for BMW. He decided to make partnership with BMW.

The company starts to expand in Europe to sell the vehicle.

Key Financial term
The company experiences losses in several consecutive years since 2008 until 2012. This is a common condition for start up company. The cash flow from operation and cash flow for investing are negative. The company gets the fund from common stock and Long term debt for financing the business.
The revenue in 2012 increase 159 % up compared to 2011. But i think the company has to check its aging receivable and collecting the money ASAP if there is overdue payment. The investor also has to check the sales contract because the inventory in 2012 increases 436 % up than the previous year but i think this is all right because it is financed by 440 % of increase of account payable in 2012 compared to 2011, an indicator of vehicle piled up in its warehouse.  
The type of operational management usually has big impact in cash to cash cycle. In operating lease concept, the company records the vehicle at the balance sheet. The net operating lease in 2012 is drop 14 % compared to 2011. This means the car order may drop or there were many resale cars from customer.
The company faces higher competition in high quality sport electric car segment, it is indicated with the decline of profit margin since 2010 until 2012: 21,79 %, 19,80 % and 13 %. I think at the next year the profit margin will be lower because they start act as vehicle manufacturer for another company based in three years trend. BMW is doing its branding strategy in sport electric car, they buy car from another manufacturer then sell it with BMW as its Logo.
The company spend 6.89 % of its revenue for Research and development cost. This was lower than the same cost in 2011 which is at 9 % of its sales. It seems the company start to reduce cost to increase profit.


Outlook
Sport electric car may compete with natural gas car. Tesla needs more capital to provide supercharger network for the customer. Natural Gas increases in its production level, mostly in US. in order to continue growth i think the company need to produce hybrid car.  
 Resale Value guarantee may be hooks the company at the future. It represents that it doesn't confidence in electric sport car.
The Revenue will increase at the end of 2013 compared to the same period in 2012. The inventory increases sharply almost fifth times bigger but it has been balanced with 5 times bigger on its account payable and the company also has high cash level, 18 % of its total asset in 2012. It means supplier believe that Tesla will sell more and i will invest more in supercharger network and service center. The working capital is negative means that the company does new strategy in run the business. There are a certain contract between supplier, Tesla and the corporate buyer.
Asset Sales
2008 51,699.0 14,742.0
2009 130,424.0 111,943.0
2010 386,082.0 97,078.0
2011 713,448.0 148,568.0
2012 1,114,190.0 385,699.0
2013 1,800,000.0 537,593.1

I have made projection of  the revenue with excel tools, i figured out that the asset increases double every year and it has strong correlation with sales. i estimate that sales will increase 40 % in 2013 compared to 2012.




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