APPLE

My analysis

In 2012 major increase of revenue is contributed by sales in Japan.  It was 93 % higher than sales in the 2011 at Japan. But the most biggest revenue is still at USA. Total increase of Global sales in 2012 is 45 % up compared to revenue in 2011. The most wanted product was IPHONE which is at 71 % increase in 2012 compared to 2011.

The key driver of Growth of this company is IPHONE in 2012. Innovation in IPHONE is absolutely fantastic and make the product is very welcome in the market.  

Innovation in IPHONE is a result from steady research and development cost which is allocated every year. The company has consecutive R&D cost 4.5 %, 3.8% and 3.8% in 2010 - 2012. The new IPHONE product   may be achievement of higher cost in 2010: 4.5 % of total net sales in that year.

In 2013, i think apple will be at lower performance. Leadership skill from steve jobs is still having high leverage in the company. Apple has to find someone who knows the things which can make people say "woow" at electronic device.  Steve knew those formulas and he had right direction in making innovation, the innovation for growth which can attract people to allocate money for buying.

I use worst case scenario for apple in forecast 2013 - 2020. Economic environment at USA is also still questionable. The system is failed; soros said that in some conversation with some TV Station. Soros compared USA with United of Soviet, failure is caused by failure in system. i am using 10 % for revenue growth and 44 % for gross margin during ten years.

I used Net Operating Cash Flow for Valuation because net income is accounting adjustment for determining the profit.

I think apple need to move to another country which has steady politics and good economics.