Economic Growth Of Indonesia

I made the forecasting at below based on moving average time series analysis. The data was taken from Trade ministry Department. According to my calculation Gross domestic product will rise slightly 1,7 % (with adjustment) and 4,6 % (without adjustment). Government has made target 6 % for economic growth.

Slower economic growth goal is made because of the global economic condition. The Fed plan to reduce debt and money supply. The treasury secretary said that possibility of economic growth in 2013 is below 6%.

Forecast : Time Series VS Exponential smoothing 

with exponential smoothing i find bigger  MAD, MSE and MAPE than Time series. So I think we better use time series. If you want better result you should calculate with more data for input. 

Manufacturing Industry as the biggest portion of GDP in indonesia

Manufacturing Industry in 2006 - 2010 

Manufacturing Industry to GDP in 2006 -2010