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Based on the table at above, sales
projection of 2013 increase 7,6 %. I used simple combination of moving average and time series, then use its factor to adjust the forecast in four quarters.
Forecasting with seasonality
with another method, I conclude that the growth rate will be at 15 % up. I used seasonality method to estimate the sales of 2013.
I think the advancement in sales is occurred because of inflation rate factor and increase in sales. It is need deeper in analysis at sales in number. Is there any increase in number ? which product are dominant in sales contribution ?. commonly consumer goods are inelastic in its demand to price.
Forecasting with seasonality
with another method, I conclude that the growth rate will be at 15 % up. I used seasonality method to estimate the sales of 2013.
I think the advancement in sales is occurred because of inflation rate factor and increase in sales. It is need deeper in analysis at sales in number. Is there any increase in number ? which product are dominant in sales contribution ?. commonly consumer goods are inelastic in its demand to price.
Rise of oil and gas price which is moved by the worse politic condition in Middle East make the global economy slow downs. The energy cost, production cost and transportation cost is more expensive.
Meanwhile the Fed plans
to decrease its money supply as the economic start to recover in USA. The Indonesian
rupiah will be weaken to US dollar. In recent times the US government has shut down its activities because they have to negotiate with parliament about Government Debt. Government plan to increase its debt but unfortunately parliament disagree with that plan.
Meanwhile based on data from trade ministry, Indonesia's export is decrease in 2011 - 2012. It declines 5 % down.
estimation for next year in private consumption will be decline because people will spend more money for transportation cost, energy cost and also the multiplier effect of cost of energy. The price of goods will increase as the increase in production cost.
According to the forecasting above I have made its financial projection
In 2013 -2015, i estimate the company will be able to increase their sales 15 % up in each year. I use seasonality method with 15% growth.
Big company usually grow stronger with M&A strategy or buy the existing brand in order to advance growth. Unilever has done several corporate action such as buy local brand like sari wangi, buavita etc.
I think the analyst have to find the product which has stronger impact in sales increase then it must be figure out its price sensitivity. Will the change in its price effect demand from customer ?
Meanwhile based on data from trade ministry, Indonesia's export is decrease in 2011 - 2012. It declines 5 % down.
estimation for next year in private consumption will be decline because people will spend more money for transportation cost, energy cost and also the multiplier effect of cost of energy. The price of goods will increase as the increase in production cost.
According to the forecasting above I have made its financial projection
In 2013 -2015, i estimate the company will be able to increase their sales 15 % up in each year. I use seasonality method with 15% growth.
Big company usually grow stronger with M&A strategy or buy the existing brand in order to advance growth. Unilever has done several corporate action such as buy local brand like sari wangi, buavita etc.
I think the analyst have to find the product which has stronger impact in sales increase then it must be figure out its price sensitivity. Will the change in its price effect demand from customer ?
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