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Showing posts with label ELTY. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ELTY. Show all posts

Sunday, August 16, 2015

ELTY : Bakrie Land Development

Acceleration of village development is expected lift economic growth up
Based on ministry of finance, one of factors which influenced the slowdown of economic growth was slow moving in absorbing budget. There is unused fund amounting to IDR 273.5 billion at BPD in each province.
That fund should be used for development of village as priority program of Jokowi administration. Jokowi in his campaign was promising special development program for villages across the country. He said that he would allocate IDR 1 billion for each village at entire nation.
Central bank expected the acceleration in absorbing budget could increase economic growth in second semester of 2015. It is predicted to reach 5 % growth.

Plan of revision in tax regulation for property: NJOP, BPHTB and price limit 
In order to get more tax revenue government plans to revise its tax regulation include for property’s sector. Government considers changing the price limit from IDR 10 billion to IDR 2 billion. If this new revision is implemented, there will be more people who pay tax for property. On other hand, government also plans to change taxable value of property (NJOP) which is used as guidance to measure how much land and building taxes (PBB) and land and building transfer fees (BPHTB) have to be paid. Government will use new system to measure land value which is called price zoning.
If those new regulations are approved, the consumer who purchase apartment valued 2 billon will be imposed more cost and the sale of this segment may be decline.
If the government changes the regulation, the developers may change its target for luxury segment as the cost increase. Developers are predicted to focus on property which is valued less than IDR 2 billion.
Tax paid on property: 5 % for Land and building transfer fee, 10 % for value added tax, 5 % for income tax and 20 % for luxury tax.

Company analysis: Purchase land bank in secondary city and expand in theme park segment
According to annual report the company experienced significant decline in revenue, the revenue of 2014 dropped about 50 %. Apartment was still the key driver with largest contribution to sales which was 21.6 % of total revenue and the second was housing with 13.6 % of total revenue. The significant decline of sales was occurred for sale of land, housing and apartments segments from about rp 1.042 in 2013 billion in to about 399 billion in 2014.Bakrie Swasakti Utama is the biggest revenue contributor which is more than 70 percent of total revenue. The decline in revenue was occurred due to strict regulation such as Loan To value and Tax regulation and happening because the slowdown of economic growth. It was reflected in sharply increase of inventory and receivable in period of 2013 until 2014.
In spite of decline in sales the company could increase its net profit and start new market in playground segment.

In 2014 the company purchased land bank in sidoarjo which was amounted to about IDR 500 billion as the company did acquisition of Mutiara Mahsyur Sejahtera. The company seems start to focus in secondary city as its strategic growth in 2014 due to removal of tax regulation for property and playground or theme park as its new market in challenging downturn of economy.
According to annual report the company has 1,030.18 ha as its land bank. The largest was located at bogor and the second was located in sidoarjo. In 2013 the company sold its several assets in golden triangle to pertamina and sinar mas teladan due to liquidity problem in paying its obligation
Meanwhile, capitalization of borrowing cost to inventory was amounted to Rp 115.5 billion and rp 501.51 billion until December 31, 2014 and 2013 respectively.
The largest share holder of the Bakrie land was avenue capital Luxembourg which was the part of Avenue Capital at New York, USA.  More than 75 % of total share is owned by Public. PT Asuransi Jiwa Sinar Mas MSIG own 5 % and Interventures Capital pte Ltd owns more than 8 %. 

The company has debt amounting to USD 155 million which would be matured in March 2015. The convertible bond has three monthly coupon payments with 8.625 % interest rate.







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Tuesday, March 31, 2015

BAKRIE LAND DEVELOPMENT - ELTY



Politic situation may be worst due to price of rice
Politic circumstances in Indonesia may be worst in second semester of 2015 due to the shrink of rupiah currency which increases price of good and service. As the result of that, the price of various food rises, mostly rice, the main food of Indonesian citizen. The condition is become worst after government has stopped import of rice from oversea.

The insufficient supply may also increase its price level, the price increased above 50 % up since the government allocated its subsidy in November 2015.
There are also many cases of money politic in period of 2009 - 2014. In Indonesia, cost of politic is very expensive, people who have been elected as dean; governor and president or member of congress may need to look for fund resource from government project, tax incentive, regulation which is made for investor and selling strategic job position to pay the debt.

Various infrastructure projects are possible taken by company with special relation to incumbent. There might be new established company will be elected as the contractor in several infrastructure projects in Indonesia.
In conclusion, the currency exchange of recent which is at 13000/USD, will cause various company having higher leverage because of its loan in USD currency, there will be more companies facing poor in performance. 


Central Bank may increase its BI rate
If the fed increase its fund rate in June 2015, the central bank may increase its BI rate to anticipate the capital outflow to over sea. As the interest rate hikes the consumption is predicted down in long term, people will prefer to save their money in the bank than use it for consumption. As the demand of good and service falls the unemployment is expected decline due to the decrease of production of good and service.

Tax Holiday is good option to increase investment ?
Tax holiday for big company which is operating in various business such as Sinar Mas Agro, it could be good alternative to boost investment. As they pay lower level of tax income and they have higher amount of reinvested fund, the company would have more funds for investment such as open new factory, increase production capacity and open new business segment. That means there will be more jobs for unemployment.

Subsidy for consumption or Accelerate Government Purchase
Based on economic model of spending allocation, if the government purchase climbs up and the non government factor do not increase, the equilibrium interest rate will rise.
As we can see in the following formula:

C/Y + I /Y + NE / Y = 1-G/Y
I assumed that fuel subsidy accelerates consumption as the transportation cost low and the decrease of subsidy will not decrease demand of fuel. The infrastructure project amounting to Rp 200 trillion which are derived from its allocation advances the government expenditure to purchase various materials for the projects. It may not a suitable prediction.

Company Analysis
The company was established in 1990, the main sector of its business is property. The company has several segments in its business such as housing, apartment, Strata office, strata Hotel, hotel and resort and etc.
Its projects are both in domestic and in over sea, one of its famous brands is rasuna epicentrum in kuningan. The company also has hotel and resort in mecca, Saudi Arabia  and several 5 star hotel across Indonesia such as Pullman in legian, Bali island.

Key Driver
The main driver in its revenue acceleration is in sales and lot of property product especially apartment segment. According to annual report of 2013, it was 59 % of total revenue. The company’s strategy is aiming strategic land bank location for its property development. In 2013 the company sold its land bank amounted to Rp 3 trillion include its land bank in bukit jonggol,  Sentul, West Java. Despite its loss in net profit at 2013, the company has various projects in across Indonesia and Saudi Arabia in 2014.
The biggest share holder is Northtern TST CO with 10 % ownership of total share. The company is a part of an Indonesian tycoon family, Bakrie Family. Aburizal Bakrie is the key person and Anindya bakrie is its candidate of family business’ leader in Indonesia and the world.

In 2013, the company was able to increase its revenue 13 % up compared to revenue of 2012. Despite its loss in net profit in 2013, the company could increase its gross margin from 55.7 percent in 2012 to 56 percent in 2013.

The company has convertible bonds amounted to Rp 2 Trillion which due in 2013. The leverage in 2014 may increase significantly as it would be converted to equity in 2013. The company has several available asset for sale such as Bakrie Toll Road, Samudra  Asia Nasional and etc. The business may not achieve good performance as its expectation.
 

Source : Annual report  2013


Source : Annual report  2013

Source : Annual report  2013

Source : Annual report  2013

Source : Annual report  2013

Source : Annual report  2013

Source : Annual report  2013