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Tuesday, March 31, 2015

BAKRIE LAND DEVELOPMENT - ELTY



Politic situation may be worst due to price of rice
Politic circumstances in Indonesia may be worst in second semester of 2015 due to the shrink of rupiah currency which increases price of good and service. As the result of that, the price of various food rises, mostly rice, the main food of Indonesian citizen. The condition is become worst after government has stopped import of rice from oversea.

The insufficient supply may also increase its price level, the price increased above 50 % up since the government allocated its subsidy in November 2015.
There are also many cases of money politic in period of 2009 - 2014. In Indonesia, cost of politic is very expensive, people who have been elected as dean; governor and president or member of congress may need to look for fund resource from government project, tax incentive, regulation which is made for investor and selling strategic job position to pay the debt.

Various infrastructure projects are possible taken by company with special relation to incumbent. There might be new established company will be elected as the contractor in several infrastructure projects in Indonesia.
In conclusion, the currency exchange of recent which is at 13000/USD, will cause various company having higher leverage because of its loan in USD currency, there will be more companies facing poor in performance. 


Central Bank may increase its BI rate
If the fed increase its fund rate in June 2015, the central bank may increase its BI rate to anticipate the capital outflow to over sea. As the interest rate hikes the consumption is predicted down in long term, people will prefer to save their money in the bank than use it for consumption. As the demand of good and service falls the unemployment is expected decline due to the decrease of production of good and service.

Tax Holiday is good option to increase investment ?
Tax holiday for big company which is operating in various business such as Sinar Mas Agro, it could be good alternative to boost investment. As they pay lower level of tax income and they have higher amount of reinvested fund, the company would have more funds for investment such as open new factory, increase production capacity and open new business segment. That means there will be more jobs for unemployment.

Subsidy for consumption or Accelerate Government Purchase
Based on economic model of spending allocation, if the government purchase climbs up and the non government factor do not increase, the equilibrium interest rate will rise.
As we can see in the following formula:

C/Y + I /Y + NE / Y = 1-G/Y
I assumed that fuel subsidy accelerates consumption as the transportation cost low and the decrease of subsidy will not decrease demand of fuel. The infrastructure project amounting to Rp 200 trillion which are derived from its allocation advances the government expenditure to purchase various materials for the projects. It may not a suitable prediction.

Company Analysis
The company was established in 1990, the main sector of its business is property. The company has several segments in its business such as housing, apartment, Strata office, strata Hotel, hotel and resort and etc.
Its projects are both in domestic and in over sea, one of its famous brands is rasuna epicentrum in kuningan. The company also has hotel and resort in mecca, Saudi Arabia  and several 5 star hotel across Indonesia such as Pullman in legian, Bali island.

Key Driver
The main driver in its revenue acceleration is in sales and lot of property product especially apartment segment. According to annual report of 2013, it was 59 % of total revenue. The company’s strategy is aiming strategic land bank location for its property development. In 2013 the company sold its land bank amounted to Rp 3 trillion include its land bank in bukit jonggol,  Sentul, West Java. Despite its loss in net profit at 2013, the company has various projects in across Indonesia and Saudi Arabia in 2014.
The biggest share holder is Northtern TST CO with 10 % ownership of total share. The company is a part of an Indonesian tycoon family, Bakrie Family. Aburizal Bakrie is the key person and Anindya bakrie is its candidate of family business’ leader in Indonesia and the world.

In 2013, the company was able to increase its revenue 13 % up compared to revenue of 2012. Despite its loss in net profit in 2013, the company could increase its gross margin from 55.7 percent in 2012 to 56 percent in 2013.

The company has convertible bonds amounted to Rp 2 Trillion which due in 2013. The leverage in 2014 may increase significantly as it would be converted to equity in 2013. The company has several available asset for sale such as Bakrie Toll Road, Samudra  Asia Nasional and etc. The business may not achieve good performance as its expectation.
 

Source : Annual report  2013


Source : Annual report  2013

Source : Annual report  2013

Source : Annual report  2013

Source : Annual report  2013

Source : Annual report  2013

Source : Annual report  2013



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