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Wednesday, February 14, 2018

COMPANY ANALYSIS: GUDANG GARAM TBK IN 2016

History
Gudang garam Tbk was established on 1958 at Kediri regency by Mr. Surya Wonowidjojo. In 1979, the company built its first cigarette manufacturing machines in Kediri regency.  Currently, the company has been led by Mr. Susilo wonowidjojo.
Referred its annual report, the parent company is Suryaduta Investama. The company is also operating in other segments such as entertainment, transportation and investment.

Facilities
Gudang garam has maintained good relationship with stake holder including the tobacco and clove farmers. There have been more than 4000 farmers who supported raw material for the company.  Some portion of raw material was imported from oversea because of the prolonged wet season which affected harvest of tobacco and clove. The domestic farmers supplying for the company are located across archipelago.
Gudang Garam has two main factories, first facility is located at Kediri regency and second manufacture facility is in Gempol, Pasuruan regency. In 2016 the company was not extending its production facilities, the capacity was capable for producing cigarette as demand in kretek market. Other manufacture facilities are located at Sumenep and Karang anyar.
The company’s products are various kretek cigarettes low tar nicotine variant (mild and light) and traditional hand rolled kretek. The corporation has 4 major subsidiaries, they are Surya pamenang, Surya Madistrindo, Surya air and galaxy prime and Graha surya media .

Change in strategy, turning from contender to dodger
In 2017, its subsidiaries, karyadibya mahardhika and surya mustika nusantara have been acquired by Japan tobacco. 100 % shares of those subsidiaries have already owned by the japans company. Gudang garam followed strategy of its competitor in indonesia such as Djarum and Sampoerna. Djarum has already acquired by Galaher group and Sampoerna has been owned by Phillip morris international. 
Accordance to domestic electronic newspaper, kontan.co.id, those companies were purchased at USD 667 millions.
The acquisition is done due to its market share in 2016 which decreased compared to its market share in 2015. Its market share in 2015 and 2016 were 21.5 % and 20.8 % consecutively. Besides, the excise tax has been higher compared to tax in the last five years
Accordance to Wikipedia, Japanese government owns 33.35 % shares of Japan tobacco. It also has more than 66 % market share in Japan. Japan tobacco also has interest in Gallaher group.

Gudang garam possibly intends to increase its export through the acquisition as market share indonesia tend to drop as government increases excise tax once at every years. Many small tobacco factories indonesia has been closed due to higher excise tax.  On other hand, it also change its strategy in competing with multinational company in clove cigarette market in indonesia such as phillip morris and Gallaher group and also Japan Tobacco. Wismilak, another domestic competitor has also been controlled by Japan Tobacco. 

















If we look at the matrix at above, we could conclude that Gudang Garam tbk acted as a dodger now.  The company sold its subsidiaries to multinational company to reduce competition to multinational company, at least the company is not competing to Japan tobacco and its affiliated company now.
The global pressure from phillip morris and Gallaher are high in tight market. The competition has become more strict as government regulation for tobacco industry is not friendly. It reflected on dropped market share in 2016 compared to 2015.
Gudang Garam would like to keep its position as market leader and it collaborated to Japan tobacco to get more access in global market value chain.

Macro Indicator
The economic growth in 2016 was batter than in 2015, it stood at 5.01 %, and it was higher than in 2015 which were at around 4.9 %. In line with Indonesia’s current account, it increased from us -17.51 billion to us -16.77 billion. The export of goods and service was improved, it reflected on its foreign exchange currency; those were IDR 13,864 and IDR 13,503 in 2015 and 2016, consecutively.  
Market share
Based on euromonitor in august 2016, the company had 28.8 % market share in local clove cigarette market. Meanwhile HM Sampoerno and PMI (Phillip morris international) had higher market share compared to Gudang Garam, it had 35.3 % market share in 2016. Another big competitor, Djarum was having 12.4 % market share at indonesia.
In Global market, gudang garam owned 1.2 % market share in 2015. The market leader of global market share for tobacco product was China National Tobacco Corporation with 42 % market share. China is the biggest market for tobacco in the world.
The market share of cigarette reflected as the following graph















In 2016, basically Gudang Garam has already been as market leader in clove cigarette market in indonesia if we split phillip morris international’s product from HM sampoerna brands. Since phillip morris international has acquired HM sampoerna, their product collaboration has been as market leader in the past three years.


Government Regulation for clove cigarette kretek and Vape
Government has already been implementing strict regulation for tobacco industry. The reason is protecting people to consume cigarette which was causing damage to people health. Many diseases are caused by tobacco.
In july 2018, government will also charge excise tax for vape product. government argues that vape damaged people health. It caused damage in lungs. The tax will be 57 percent equal to clove cigarette product.
Vape is possibly a substitute product for clove cigarette. it is unlike cigarette which is using fire to burn clove blended tobacco, Vape is utilizing vaporization of liquid tobacco which is heated by battery.
The excise tax is charged to tobacco product which is done based on regulation of UU no. 39 tahun 2007.

Company financial analysis




















Revenue
Revenue of the company in 2016 slightly increased more than 8 % compared to revenue in 2015. The biggest contributor of revenue was contributed by SKM (sigaret kretek mesin) product which was sold at 68,620 million sticks of cigarette. Whereas, its SKT (sigaret kretek tangan) was sold at 8456 million sticks of cigarette. those numbers slightly dropped. The revenue incremental occurred due to higher pricing to skt and skm products.
The higher excise tax from government pushed the company to increase its product prices.

Profitability
Net income before tax in 2016 slightly increased than net income before tax in 2015, it occurred as revenue increased in 2016. The company also reduced its interest expense and it increased its net profit before tax. The utility of short term debt has been decreased.
The higher revenue and higher gross margin in 2016 compared to 2015 were also increasing EBITDA in 2016.

Liquidity
Current ratio in 2016 was higher than current ration in 2015. It increased from 1.77 to 1.94 in 2015 and 2016, subsequently. The ability to pay short term liability was improved.
The cash to cash cycle (DR + DI – DP) in 2016 was also improved compared to cash to cash cycle in 2015 from 246 days to 239 days. The company was able to make shorter its business operation.

Leverage
The leverage ratio (total asset to equity) decreased from 1.67 to 1.59. The current asset decreased especially its cash and cash equivalent. The company reduced its utility of short term loan. It paid some portion of its short term debt in 2016. Meanwhile the equity portion rose as the company was able to increase its revenue and reduce its cost.

Capital expenditure
In 2016, the company allocated its internal fund to purchased fixed asset amounted to more than idr 2 trillion. It purchased spare part of machine for production, raw material for building development and information technology product.

Credit Risk
Moody’s rating agency has given credit risk score for Gudang garam tbk at 6 of 1-10 score. The credit risk score is made based on company’s balance sheet and input from capital market. It is categorized in medium level.

Conclusion
Gudang garam turned its strategy from contender to dodger; it sold its subsidiary to Japan tobacco. As a result of that Gudang garam brand was also sold by Japan Tobacco at oversea. The new strategy is expected to increase its global market share at oversea. Djarum group claimed that it have more than 70 % market share of clove cigarette product at over sea.
Djarum group has collaborated to Gallaher group which is based on UK. Gudang Garam is expected to be able to access distribution chain at oversea such USA, Europe and other asian countries. 











































Saturday, February 10, 2018

TELKOM INDONESIA 2016

Referred to bureau of statistic center, economic growth of indonesia in 2016 was at 5.02 %, it was better than growth in 2015. Telecommunication industry was one of industry segment which experienced growth in the year, its growth stood at 8.87 % compared to previous year. Telecommunication industry started to transform to digital business. In addition, government supported to advance digital economy in indonesia.

Telkom indonesia, a state owned corporation has developed biggest infrastructure to support its business across the globe. It already has fiber optic connection over Europe until United state of America. It has SEA ME WE 5 from Merseille to dumai, it is 20.000 km length and SEA-US connecting Manado to Los Angeles with 15.000 km length. The total length of its fiber optic network was 106.000 km.

Based on its annual report it has 362.200 access point, 95.000 m2 gross facility data center, 129.033 unit BTS and tree satellites.            
Its cellular user in 2016 was 173.9 million people. It increased 14 % compared to cellular user in 2015.      

Development in infrastructure is functioned to maintain its double digit growth and also to support its technology and digital service across the world.

The leading telecommunication company, Telkom experienced double digit growth both in its income and its net profit. In 2016, its revenue was 116.333 billion.


In during 2016 the company succeeded in obtaining double digit growth in its revenue, the incremental was 13.5 %. Based on its financial statement, the highest portion of income in 2016 was contributed by revenue from data, service and internet segment. It was 51 % of total revenue. Subscribers start to consume more data and internet service as Telkom has been developing its IT infrastructure. It influences in velocity of data transfer and video streaming. Its net profit also grew higher in 2016, the company succeeded to increase its gross margin by reducing interconnection cost.