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Sunday, June 7, 2015

ASII

Background
Based on ministry of industry at May 16 2015, Government changed its target of economic growth from 5.8 percent in to 5.2 percent due to external and internal economic condition. As we know there has been a high inflation rate in the since of 2015 due to global economic situation and higher cost of fuel.
Meanwhile, based on statistic data center there was a surplus in current account at April. It was amounting to USD 454.4 million. Accordance to the statistic bureau the downfall of current account was a result of decrease in exports both oil and non oil. It was respectively decline 0.17 percent for non oil export and 26.7 percent for oil export compared to April 2014. In addition, the import rate decrease in April 2015 compared to April 2014. It declined 27.13 percent compared to last year.

Company Analysis
The company have various sectors of industry both in Indonesia and oversea. The Main industry of the company is automotive industry which was 56 % of total revenue in 2014. The second was heavy equipment and mining industry. In spite of slowdown in economic growth, the company was still able to increase its sales 4 % up in 2014 compared to sales in 2013. The sales growth in 2014 was also higher than sales growth in 2013 which was 3 % up.
In 2014 the company was still keeping its gross margin at about 22 % of total revenue. The company could cut its cost of goods sold despite several costs rose in 2014.  Operating cost slightly increase from 8.3 % of revenue of 2013 in to 8.9 % of revenue of 2014.
ASII is owned by English company as its majority share holder. Its subsidiaries and affiliates are Bank Permata, United Tractor, Astra Honda motor, Pama Persada Indonesia, and etc. ASII has various business portfolio and it creates well diversification in its business portfolio.

Momentum to invest in oil and gas industry
As the oil price has been fallen, I think there is an opportunity to entry oil and gas company. The automotive industry has strong relation which oil industry. Lubricant oil and fuel are products which have significant impact to automotive industry.

expressed in  Millions rupiah
2013
2014
2015F
2016F
2017F
Revenue
193,880.0
201,701.0
209,769.0
218,159.8
226,886.2
COGS
-152,755.0
-157,113.0
-165,717.5
-172,346.2
-179,240.1
Gross Profit
41,125.0
44,588.0
44,051.5
45,813.6
47,646.1
Operating Expense
-16,025.0
-17,885.0
-18,600.4
-17,452.8
-18,150.9
Depreciation n amortization
-6,497.0
-6,540.0
-7,125.2
-7,449.1
-2,233.8
Other Income / - expense
10,029.0
8,564.0
8,906.6
9,262.8
9,633.3
Interest Expense
-1,109.0
-1,375.0
-1,440.7
-1,520.0
-1,610.0
Pretax Income
27,523.0
27,352.0
25,791.7
28,654.5
35,284.8
Taxes
-5,226.0
-5,227.0
-6,447.9
-7,163.6
-8,821.2
Net Income
22,297.0
22,125.0
19,343.8
21,490.9
26,463.6
Cash
18,557.0
20,902.0
37,060.5
55,566.5
74,612.4
Short Term Investment
262.0
277.0
277.0
277.0
277.0
Trade Receivable
18,967.0
20,423.0
21,239.9
22,089.5
22,973.1
Inventories
14,433.0
16,986.0
17,916.3
18,632.9
19,378.2
Other Current Asset
36,133.0
38,653.0
40,199.1
41,807.1
43,479.4
Total  Curr Asset
88,352.0
97,241.0
116,692.8
138,373.0
160,720.1
Net Property, Plants and equipment 
37,862.0
41,250.0
43,124.8
44,675.7
51,441.9
Other Non Curr Asset
87,780.0
97,538.0
101,439.5
105,497.1
109,717.0
Total Non Curr Asset
125,642.0
138,788.0
144,564.3
150,172.8
161,158.9
Total Asset
213,994.0
236,029.0
261,257.1
288,545.8
321,879.1
Short Term Debt
12,854.0
10,586.0
12,000.0
12,000.0
12,000.0
Account Payable
14,577.0
16,038.0
16,916.3
17,593.0
18,296.7
Curr Portion of Long term debt
24,549.0
26,835.0
28,000.0
30,000.0
33,000.0
Other Curr Liabilities
19,159.0
20,064.0
20,866.6
21,701.2
22,569.3
Total Curr Liabilities
71,139.0
73,523.0
77,782.9
81,294.2
85,866.0
Long Term Debt
27,120.0
32,651.0
34,000.0
36,000.0
38,000.0
Deferred Taxes
3,268.0
2,645.0
2,645.0
2,645.0
2,645.0
Other Non Curr Liabilities
6,279.0
6,886.0
7,161.4
7,447.9
7,745.8
Total Non Curr Liabilities
36,667.0
42,182.0
43,806.4
46,092.9
48,390.8
Total Liabilities
107,806.0
115,705.0
121,589.3
127,387.1
134,256.8
Minorities
22,250.0
24,713.0
24,713.0
24,713.0
24,713.0
Common Share
2,024.0
2,024.0
2,024.0
2,024.0
2,024.0
Additional Paid Up Capital
1,139.0
1,139.0
1,139.0
1,139.0
1,139.0
Retained Earning
80,775.0
92,448.0
111,791.8
133,282.7
159,746.3
Other
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Share holder Equity
83,938.0
95,611.0
114,954.8
136,445.7
162,909.3
Share holder Equity & Minority Interest
106,188.0
120,324.0
139,667.8
161,158.7
187,622.3
Total SE,Minority Interest and Liabilities
213,994.0
236,029.0
261,257.1
288,545.8
321,879.1
Financial Ratio
2013
2014
2015F
2016F
2017F
ROA
10.42
9.37
7.40
7.45
8.22
ROE
26.56
23.14
16.83
15.75
16.24
Gross Margin
21.21
22.11
21.00
21.00
21.00
Profit Margin
11.50
10.97
9.22
9.85
11.66
Current Ratio
1.24
1.32
1.50
1.70
1.87
Debt to asset
0.30
0.30
0.28
0.27
0.26
-
25.6
23.8
24.8
24.3
Dividend Pay Out Ratio
48
Days Payable
35
37
37
37
37
Days Inventory
34
39
39
39
39
Days Receivable
36
37
37
37
37
Free Cash Flow
4,785.0
12,230.5
14,505.9
14,046.0
EBITDA
35,129.0
35,267.0
34,357.7
37,623.6
39,128.5
EPS
480.00
474.00
477.81
530.85
653.68
Revenue Growth
3
4
4
4
4



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