Background
Based on ministry of industry at
May 16 2015, Government changed its target of economic growth from 5.8 percent
in to 5.2 percent due to external and internal economic condition. As we know
there has been a high inflation rate in the since of 2015 due to global
economic situation and higher cost of fuel.
Meanwhile, based on statistic
data center there was a surplus in current account at April. It was amounting
to USD 454.4 million. Accordance to the statistic bureau the downfall of
current account was a result of decrease in exports both oil and non oil. It
was respectively decline 0.17 percent for non oil export and 26.7 percent for
oil export compared to April 2014. In addition, the import rate decrease in
April 2015 compared to April 2014. It declined 27.13 percent compared to last
year.
Company Analysis
The company have various sectors
of industry both in Indonesia and oversea. The Main industry of the company is
automotive industry which was 56 % of total revenue in 2014. The second was
heavy equipment and mining industry. In spite of slowdown in economic growth,
the company was still able to increase its sales 4 % up in 2014 compared to
sales in 2013. The sales growth in 2014 was also higher than sales growth in
2013 which was 3 % up.
In 2014 the company was still
keeping its gross margin at about 22 % of total revenue. The company could cut
its cost of goods sold despite several costs rose in 2014. Operating cost slightly increase from 8.3 %
of revenue of 2013 in to 8.9 % of revenue of 2014.
ASII is owned by English company
as its majority share holder. Its subsidiaries and affiliates are Bank Permata,
United Tractor, Astra Honda motor, Pama Persada Indonesia, and etc. ASII has
various business portfolio and it creates well diversification in its business
portfolio.
Momentum to invest in oil and gas industry
As the oil price has been fallen,
I think there is an opportunity to entry oil and gas company. The automotive
industry has strong relation which oil industry. Lubricant oil and fuel are
products which have significant impact to automotive industry.
expressed in Millions rupiah
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015F
|
2016F
|
2017F
|
Revenue
|
193,880.0
|
201,701.0
|
209,769.0
|
218,159.8
|
226,886.2
|
COGS
|
-152,755.0
|
-157,113.0
|
-165,717.5
|
-172,346.2
|
-179,240.1
|
Gross Profit
|
41,125.0
|
44,588.0
|
44,051.5
|
45,813.6
|
47,646.1
|
Operating Expense
|
-16,025.0
|
-17,885.0
|
-18,600.4
|
-17,452.8
|
-18,150.9
|
Depreciation n amortization
|
-6,497.0
|
-6,540.0
|
-7,125.2
|
-7,449.1
|
-2,233.8
|
Other Income / - expense
|
10,029.0
|
8,564.0
|
8,906.6
|
9,262.8
|
9,633.3
|
Interest Expense
|
-1,109.0
|
-1,375.0
|
-1,440.7
|
-1,520.0
|
-1,610.0
|
Pretax Income
|
27,523.0
|
27,352.0
|
25,791.7
|
28,654.5
|
35,284.8
|
Taxes
|
-5,226.0
|
-5,227.0
|
-6,447.9
|
-7,163.6
|
-8,821.2
|
Net Income
|
22,297.0
|
22,125.0
|
19,343.8
|
21,490.9
|
26,463.6
|
Cash
|
18,557.0
|
20,902.0
|
37,060.5
|
55,566.5
|
74,612.4
|
Short Term Investment
|
262.0
|
277.0
|
277.0
|
277.0
|
277.0
|
Trade Receivable
|
18,967.0
|
20,423.0
|
21,239.9
|
22,089.5
|
22,973.1
|
Inventories
|
14,433.0
|
16,986.0
|
17,916.3
|
18,632.9
|
19,378.2
|
Other Current Asset
|
36,133.0
|
38,653.0
|
40,199.1
|
41,807.1
|
43,479.4
|
Total Curr Asset
|
88,352.0
|
97,241.0
|
116,692.8
|
138,373.0
|
160,720.1
|
Net Property, Plants and
equipment
|
37,862.0
|
41,250.0
|
43,124.8
|
44,675.7
|
51,441.9
|
Other Non Curr Asset
|
87,780.0
|
97,538.0
|
101,439.5
|
105,497.1
|
109,717.0
|
Total Non Curr Asset
|
125,642.0
|
138,788.0
|
144,564.3
|
150,172.8
|
161,158.9
|
Total Asset
|
213,994.0
|
236,029.0
|
261,257.1
|
288,545.8
|
321,879.1
|
Short Term Debt
|
12,854.0
|
10,586.0
|
12,000.0
|
12,000.0
|
12,000.0
|
Account Payable
|
14,577.0
|
16,038.0
|
16,916.3
|
17,593.0
|
18,296.7
|
Curr Portion of Long term debt
|
24,549.0
|
26,835.0
|
28,000.0
|
30,000.0
|
33,000.0
|
Other Curr Liabilities
|
19,159.0
|
20,064.0
|
20,866.6
|
21,701.2
|
22,569.3
|
Total Curr Liabilities
|
71,139.0
|
73,523.0
|
77,782.9
|
81,294.2
|
85,866.0
|
Long Term Debt
|
27,120.0
|
32,651.0
|
34,000.0
|
36,000.0
|
38,000.0
|
Deferred Taxes
|
3,268.0
|
2,645.0
|
2,645.0
|
2,645.0
|
2,645.0
|
Other Non Curr Liabilities
|
6,279.0
|
6,886.0
|
7,161.4
|
7,447.9
|
7,745.8
|
Total Non Curr Liabilities
|
36,667.0
|
42,182.0
|
43,806.4
|
46,092.9
|
48,390.8
|
Total Liabilities
|
107,806.0
|
115,705.0
|
121,589.3
|
127,387.1
|
134,256.8
|
Minorities
|
22,250.0
|
24,713.0
|
24,713.0
|
24,713.0
|
24,713.0
|
Common Share
|
2,024.0
|
2,024.0
|
2,024.0
|
2,024.0
|
2,024.0
|
Additional Paid Up Capital
|
1,139.0
|
1,139.0
|
1,139.0
|
1,139.0
|
1,139.0
|
Retained Earning
|
80,775.0
|
92,448.0
|
111,791.8
|
133,282.7
|
159,746.3
|
Other
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Share holder Equity
|
83,938.0
|
95,611.0
|
114,954.8
|
136,445.7
|
162,909.3
|
Share holder Equity & Minority
Interest
|
106,188.0
|
120,324.0
|
139,667.8
|
161,158.7
|
187,622.3
|
Total SE,Minority Interest and
Liabilities
|
213,994.0
|
236,029.0
|
261,257.1
|
288,545.8
|
321,879.1
|
Financial Ratio
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015F
|
2016F
|
2017F
|
ROA
|
10.42
|
9.37
|
7.40
|
7.45
|
8.22
|
ROE
|
26.56
|
23.14
|
16.83
|
15.75
|
16.24
|
Gross Margin
|
21.21
|
22.11
|
21.00
|
21.00
|
21.00
|
Profit Margin
|
11.50
|
10.97
|
9.22
|
9.85
|
11.66
|
Current Ratio
|
1.24
|
1.32
|
1.50
|
1.70
|
1.87
|
Debt to asset
|
0.30
|
0.30
|
0.28
|
0.27
|
0.26
|
-
|
25.6
|
23.8
|
24.8
|
24.3
|
|
Dividend Pay Out Ratio
|
48
|
||||
Days Payable
|
35
|
37
|
37
|
37
|
37
|
Days Inventory
|
34
|
39
|
39
|
39
|
39
|
Days Receivable
|
36
|
37
|
37
|
37
|
37
|
Free Cash Flow
|
4,785.0
|
12,230.5
|
14,505.9
|
14,046.0
|
|
EBITDA
|
35,129.0
|
35,267.0
|
34,357.7
|
37,623.6
|
39,128.5
|
EPS
|
480.00
|
474.00
|
477.81
|
530.85
|
653.68
|
Revenue Growth
|
3
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
