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Wednesday, July 31, 2013

APPLE

My analysis


In 2012 major increase of revenue is contributed by sales in Japan.  It was 93 % higher than sales in the 2011 at Japan. But the most biggest revenue is still at USA. Total increase of Global sales in 2012 is 45 % up compared to revenue in 2011. The most wanted product was IPHONE which is at 71 % increase in 2012 compared to 2011.
The key driver of Growth of this company is IPHONE in 2012. Innovation in IPHONE is absolutely fantastic and make the product is very welcome in the market.  
Innovation in IPHONE is a result from steady research and development cost which is allocated every year. The company has consecutive R&D cost 4.5 %, 3.8% and 3.8% in 2010 - 2012. The new IPHONE product   may be achievement of higher cost in 2010: 4.5 % of total net sales in that year.
In 2013, i think apple will be at lower performance. Leadership skill from steve jobs is still having high leverage in the company. Apple has to find someone who knows the things which can make people say "woow" at electronic device.  Steve knew those formulas and he had right direction in making innovation, the innovation for growth which can attract people to allocate money for buying.
I use worst case scenario for apple in forecast 2013 - 2020. Economic environment at USA is also still questionable. The system is failed; soros said that in some conversation with some TV Station. Soros compared USA with United of Soviet, failure is caused by failure in system. i am using 10 % for revenue growth and 44 % for gross margin during ten years.
I used Net Operating Cash Flow for Valuation because net income is accounting adjustment for determining the profit.

I think apple need to move to another country which has steady politics and good economics. 

Sunday, July 28, 2013

ASTRA INTERNATIONAL - ASII

Background
Indonesia has stable economic growth compared to other countries in south East Asia. Gross Domestic Product in three consecutive years 2010 - 2012 are always at approximately 6 %: 6.2 %; 6.5% and 6.2%. The macroeconomic stability is key strength for any industry to grow.  Gross Domestic product in Indonesia is contributed by 55 % from public consumption and 34 % from Investment. With strong domestic economic base, Indonesia has good fundamental in economic for the future.
In Indonesia, it is still lack of competition. The industry in indonesia, both service and manufacturing are contained poor in number of player. Major Player such as Astra International has strong opportunity to grow. 
Government had cut its subsidy in subsidized fuel price. It will decrease private consumption as the increase of cost. For automotive industry, Fuel price hike is heavy for cost of manufacture but it is a challenge for the sales team of the company. in order to anticipate higher fuel price, astra had launch new low cost fuel efficient car, Astra Toyota Agya and Astra Daihatsu Ayla. Astra is the leader in car  and motorcycle market share in indonesia.
In infrastructure industry, length of toll roads in Indonesia is lower compared to malaysia, thailand and etc. According to ministry of transportation, indonesia only has toll road along 778 km which is lower than malaysia with toll road along 3000 km.  Government has several strategic toll road projects in java and outside java. Trans java which is connecting surabaya and jakarta along 615 km was started since 2006. The project is hampered by land acquisition issue. The Government has also planned other strategic Toll road: trans sumatra, trans sulawesi and others. Government has supported with incentive and deregulation of policy through ministry of public works with government regulation number 15 of 2005 on Toll Road. This is a good momentum for subsidiary which operates in infrastructure industry to participate in the project.  

For banking industry, Indonesia is still prospective. In September 2012, Credit increase 23 % compared to 2011, The same condition is occurred to third party funding which is 20 % up.  Non-performing loan is at lower rate, it indicates that credit quality is at well condition. Banking sector is still growing, several new banks appear at 2012, Bank of Nobu, Bank of Pundi and etc. 

Strategic Triple Roadmap
Comprised of:
·         Portfolio Roadmap
·         People Roadmap
·         Public Contribution Roadmap

Shareholder
·         Jardine cycle & carriage ...........50,11 %
·         Budi Setiadharma .............0,02%
·         Anthony john Liddell Nightingale.....0,02%
·         Commissioner
·         Others (each less than 5 %)............49,85%

Jardine is the biggest shareholder in Astra International.  JC &C is Singapore - Listed Company, the company is a member of Jardine Matheson Group, the major player in other countries in automotive industry.  With 50, 11 % of entire shares,  JC & C controlled the company.   JC&C takes control in similar business at Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Business Structure
No
Industry
Product
Brand / Subsidiary
1
Automotive
Car
Toyota



Daihatsu



Isuzu



UD Trucks



Peugeot



BMW


Motor cycle
Honda


Sparet Parts
Astra Otoparts


Others
Astra World




2
Financial Service
Car Financing
Astra Sedaya Finance



Toyota Financial Service


Motorcycle Financing
Federal International Finance


Heavy Equipment Financing
Surya Artha Nusantara Finance



Komatsu Astra Finance


General Insurance
Asuransi Astra Buana


Banking
Bank Permata




3
Heavy Equipment  &
Construction Machinery
UT and Traktor Nusantara


Mining Contractor
Pamapersada Nusantara


Mining
Tuah Turangga Agung



Agung Baraprima



Duta Sejahtera



Bukit Enim Energy



Duta Nurcahya




4
Agribusiness
Palm Plantation
Astra Agro Lestari




5
Infrastructure and Logistic
Toll Road
MMS . MTN, MHI


Logistic
SERA



Trac



Mobil 88



TFLI




6
Water Utility
Water Utility
Palyja


Fuel Logistic
Gresik Terminal




7
Information Technology
Document Solution
Astra Graphia


Information Technology
AG Information Technology
My analysis
Financial Summary

General
Indonesia has strong economic growth in 2012, it was 6 % Y-o-Y. With high domestic consumption and high number in productive age, economic is still prospective at the future.  
Automotive
  • New down payment requirement in 2012  affected the total revenue for automotive.  Consumer tends to buy new vehicle at the lower down payment.
  • Astra Automotive business grows 25 % in 2012 from 79.7 trillion in to 99.6 trillion. It comprised sales of Astra cars and sales of Honda motorcycle.
  • Reaching to 605,191 units, Total revenue of Astra car increase 25.4 % compared to 2011. This increase indicate that astra has strong integrated business in sale a car and provide its financial service.

Financial Service
Revenue in Financial Service division increase 15 % compared to previous year. The contribution to the group also increases from 18.7 % in 2011 to 19.1 %. The growth of financial service sector is affected by the increase of revenue in automotive segment.  

Capital Market
Based on return on investment in equities and market return (Jakarta Stock Exchange index) at June 2013, we could get beta (with regression analysis) of stocks in business portfolio of Astra International as the following result:

 Stock                                    beta
Astra Agro............           0.58
Astra Graphia.......           1.00
Bank Permata.....             0.03
United Tractors                 -1.01
Astra Otoparts....             -0.25

Those data are taken from Jakarta stock exchange of June 2013. Betas which are valued between 0 - 1 are Bank Permata, Astra Graphia and Astra Agro Lestari. The rest are at range of 0 to -1, these are United tractor and Astra Otopart.

Not all subsidiaries of Astra International are listed at Jakarta Stock Exchange. I don't calculate the private company for the beta.

Beta describes the risk of investment in stock at capital market in Capital Asset Pricing Model Concept.

 SUMMARY

Astra International has strong portfolio and strong major shareholder which is having the same vision in developing automotive industry as the major business portfolio. In order to do vertical integration astra international has invested their Fund in Infrastructure segment. The company had done the same strategy with Astra otopart which supply the spare part in after market of automobile and motor cycle which are produced by The company.  

Forecasting

Sales
Mar
Jun
Sep
Dec
Total
Growth
2008
21,780.0
22,981.0
29,004.0
23,299.0
97,064.0
2009
21,537.0
24,730.0
24,380.0
27,879.0
98,526.0
1.51%
2010
29,688.0
31,819.0
32,855.0
34,676.0
129,038.0
30.97%
2011
36,693.0
39,571.0
43,266.0
43,034.0
162,564.0
25.98%
2012
46,353.0
49,566.0
47,219.0
44,915.0
188,053.0
15.68%
2013
43,287.9
47,226.1
62,650.0
60,782.2
213,946.3
13.77%

From the table at above we can figure out that The company has good growth rate between 2008 - 2012. In 2013 with smoothing moving average we could calculate that the company will increase 13.77 %. We make assumption with average growth 10 % in the next ten years, we could find the possible condition as the following (IDR).






Thursday, July 25, 2013

CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES

Terms
2011
2012
Change
Revenue
5,800.0
5,700.0
-1.7%
Net Income
1,600.0
-937.4
-158.6%
Net Operating cash flow
2,300.0
514.5
-77.6%
Total Assets
1,300.0
296.4
-77.2%
Inventory
692.6
725.6
4.8%
Receivable
386.3
456.7
18.2%

Business Sector
The company is a major global company on Iron ore mining and coal mining which is managing five mines of iron ore at Minnesota and Michigan and also an iron ore mining complex in Western Australia. The business is driven by Iron ore demand for producing steel product in integrated steel industry at USA and CHINA, the company has 57 % of total iron ore US Capacity. The company also operates metallurgical mine and thermal coal mine in West Virginia. 


My Analysis
From the table at above it can be analyzed that revenue decrease 1.7 % at 2012 compared to 2011. At the bottom, Net income dropped 158.6 %. Net income dropped faster than revenue because of decline in Gross Margin. COGS in 2012 is higher, it is 75.4 % of revenue in 2012, more expensive than COGS in 2011 at 65.5 % of revenue. The volatile price of iron ore causes lower income.
Inventory and receivable are increase, inverse with revenue which decline slightly at 1.7 %. Each increase is 4.8 % and 18.3 %.  For account receivable, the increase may be happened because of bad debt of the customer. It needs more information and investigation to figure out, because revenue at same period decreases at 1.7 %.
The company is facing iron ore price which is volatile. In order to develop seaborne iron ore market, the company conducts expansion in Bloom lake in eastern canada. That investment is at phase II, in Construction process. But the bad news appears, the project at Bloom Lake is put off because of lack of cash flow. The creditors suspend the loan because it is worse in its Loan to EBITDA and the iron ore price is volatile.
For Iron ore, it concentrates for three biggest clients, Arcelor Mittal, Algoma and Severstal.  

Future Plan
The company will make plan startup date for project at bloom lake. in 2009 - 2011 the company has good trend in its sales growth. the company increase revenue approximately two billion in each year during that period.    

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

ANCORA INDONESIA RESOURCES

Terms
2012
2011
Increase
revenue
180,847,036.0
136,240,477.0
32.7%
Operating Income
5,499,445.0
3,314,013.0
65.9%
Net Operating cash flow
15,655,299.0
20,111,870.0
-22.2%
Total Assets
221,143,259.0
172,133,806.0
28.5%
Inventory
59,321,974.0
13,839,031.0
328.7%
Receivable
23,262,943.0
13,839,031.0
68.1%

Dari tabel diatas dapat dilihat bahwa pendapatan tahun 2012 naik 32.7 % dibandingkan tahun 2011. Kenaikan dipengaruhi oleh  pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia yang masih cukup bagus dkisaran 6.2  %. disisi lain operating income perusahaan naik sebesar 65.9 %. Kenaikan net operating income yang lebih tinggi dari kenaikan pendapatan menandakan perusahaan memiliki profit margin yang lebih baik ditahun 2012.

BN (Bormindo Nusantara) merupakan salah satu anak perusahaan yang bergerak disektor drilling service mencatat kenaikan utilitas Rig dan berhasil mendapatkan kontrak baru di tahun 2012 diantaranya dengan VICO. Disisi lain kenaikan pendapatan juga disebabkan oleh Penjualan MNK ditahun 2012 melahirkan record baru,sebesar 138,500 MT.  

Namun kenaikan sales dan net operating income tidak diiringi dengan net operating cash flow yang turun -22.2 %. Penurunan net operating cash flow yang berbanding terbalik dengan kenaikan revenue dan operating income mengindikasikan kualitas net operating income perlu diselidik, perlu dilakukan investigasi terhadap pengakuan pendapatan perusahaan.  Apakah pengakuan pendapatannya terlalu aggressive atau tidak.

Kenaikan inventory sebesar 328.7 %, jauh lebih tinggi dari kenaikan pendapatan, mengindikasikan adanya penumpukan stock yang cukup signifikan. Perlu dilakukan investigasi terhadap hal tersebut. Hal yang sama juga terjadi pada kenaikan piutang usaha 68.1 % yang lebih cepat dari pada kenaikan pendapatan, kemungkinan adanya porsi piutang tidak tertagih atau credit policy yang terlalu longgar.
Menurut annual review,  perusahaan sedang menghadapi besarnya hutang bank, net income periode tahun 2011 - 2012 negatif. hal tersebut disebabkan salah satu pabrik anak perusahaan baru beroperasi penuh pada tahun 2012 yaitu MNK II.  Anak perusahaan lain ancora indonesia mining belum bisa beroperasi secara komersial. Biaya investasi dibandingkan cash flow masih jauh dari break event poinnya. 

Bisnis Portofolio ANCORA
Subsidiary
Ownership
Ancora Shipping
99.8 %
Shipping Company
Ancora Indonesia Mining
99.60%
Mining
PT. Bormindo Nusantara
60%
Drilling Service
PT. Multi Nitrotama Kimia
50%
Explosive Manufacturing

Perusahaan memiliki anak perusahaan yang memiliki hubungan integrasi vertical satu sama lain. MNK merupakan produsen bahan peledak yang biasa digunakan dalam kegiatan pertambangan batu bara. sedangkan ancora shipping lebih cenderung melayani internal sales dengan anak perusahaan lain. BN memiliki korelasi yang berbanding terbalik dengan MNK karena BN melayani sektor industri migas sedangkan MNK sektor pertambangan batu bara.

English :
ANCORA

From the above table it can be seen that the year 2012 income up 32.7% compared to the year 2011. The increase was influenced by indonesia's economic growth is still pretty good at 6.2%.  On the other hand the company operating income rose by 40.9%. Increase in net operating income that is higher than the increase in revenue which indicates the company has a better profit margin by 2012.

BN (Bormindo Nusantara) is one of the subsidiary recorded a rise in service sector of drilling Rig and utility managed to get a new contract in 2012 including with VICO. On the other hand the increase in revenues was also due in 2012 MNK Sales gave birth to a new record, amounted to 138,500 MT.


But the increase in sales and net operating income is not accompanied by net operating cash flow which is dropped-22.2%. Decrease in net operating cash flow is inversely proportional to the increase in revenue and operating income indicates its quality needs to be investigated.   

The investigation needs to be done to the company's revenue recognition whether recognition of income is too aggressive or not.

Increase inventory amounted to 328.7% up, much higher than the increase in revenue, indicating the presence of stock buildup which is quite significant.  It needs to do an investigation of the matter. The same thing also happens to 68.1% increase in trade receivables that are faster than the increase in revenue, the possibility of serving of unbilled accounts receivable  or credit policy is too aggressive.

According to the annual review, the company is facing large bank loans.  Net income in 2011-2012 periods are negative. It is occurred because of one of the new factory of subsidiary just fully operating in 2012, MNK II. Another subsidiary of the company, Ancora Mining Indonesia cannot operate commercially yet. 

Business Portfolio of  ANCORA

The company has subsidiaries that have vertical integration relations with one another. MNK is a manufacturer of explosives commonly used in coal-mining activities while ancora shipping is more likely to serve internal sales with other subsidiaries. BN has a correlation that is inversely to the MNK because BN serving oil & gas industry sector while the coal-mining sector MNK.


RIG TENDER

A. Business Sector
Rig Tender merupakan perusahaan di bidang penyewaan kapal dengan klien perusahaan eksplorasi minyak dan gas dan juga tambang batu bara. Rig Tender merupakan afiliasi dari perusahaan penyewaan kapal asal malaysia Scomi Marine Pte Ltd yang masih satu group dengan Scomy Energy Service Berhad. lebih dari 80 persen saham perusahaan milik induk perusahaan.  
Perusahaan dengan 800 an orang karyawan ini berkantar di Jalan Prof. Saharjo Jakarta. Salah satu kontrak penyewaan kapal yang dimiliki adalah kontrak (coal barging contract) dengan PT. Arutmin Indonesia sebesar 8.5 juta ton pengangkutan batu bara.  Klien lain adalah Adaro energy, Pertamina hulu Energy ONWJ Ltd, Total E&P, CNOOC dll.
Beban biaya terbesar adalah untuk pembelian bahan bakar dan pelumas. Pendapatan berkonsentrasi pada tiga klien terbesar: Adaro Indonesia, Arutmin Indonesia dan Pertamina Hulu Energy ONWJ Ltd.
Terms
2012
2011
Change
revenue
89,911,956.0
113,777,572.0
-21.0%
Net Income
6,056,530.0
-861,619.0
802.9%
Net Operating cash flow
38,053,707.0
34,088,194.0
11.6%
Total Assets
52,052,918.0
66,303,871.0
-21.5%
Inventory
1,811,952.0
3,232,457.0
-43.9%
Receivable
19,627,419.0
32,721,944.0
-40.0%



B. My Analisa
Dari tabel diatas dapat diketahui jika pendapatan ditahun 2012 menurun 21 % dibanding pendapatan di tahun 2011. Penurunan pendapatan dikarenakan menurunnya permintaan batu bara dari india dan china akibat stabilnya harga minyak dan harga gas bumi yang kebih kompetitif dan ramah lingkungan. Disisi lain china dan india sedang mengalami penurunan pertumbuhan ekonomi sehingga kebutuhan energy juga menurun. 
China dan India mulai beralih ke sumber energi gas bumi  yang berasal dari produsen gas bumi Russia, USA dan lain lain.
Penurunan revenue berbandingterbalik dengan kenaikan net income sebesar 802.9 %. hal tersebut disebabkan membaiknya gross profit margin yang naik tipis dan menurunnya biaya penurunan nilai kapal yang menurun di tahun 2012 di banding tahun 2011. Dimana Vessel Impairment dihitung berdasarkan nilai pakai, nilai wajar dan biaya untuk menjual kapal.
Penurunan revenue berbanding terbalik dengan kenaikan net operating cash flow namun sebanding dengan kenaikan net income. Kenaikan net income yang lebih tinggi dari pada kenaikan net operating cash flow disebabkan karena penurunan vessel impairment seperti penjelasan diatas. Net operating cash flow naik karena penurunan biaya bunga dan penurunan biaya bahan bakar dan pelumas.
Penurunan receivable 40 % di tahun 2012 di banding tahun 2011 lebih tinggi dari pada penurunan sales 21 persen.  Pencairan piutang cukup signifikan terjadi diduga karena perusahaan mengalami kendala dalam mencari kontrak kontrak baru sehingga cash flow yang diterima sebagian besar dari existing kontrak yang sudah ada ditahun sebelumnya.
Penurunan inventory 43. 9 % lebih besar dari pada penurunan revenue 21 %. Perusahaan tidak memerlukan pasokan bahan bakar dan pelumas yang signifikan karena kurangnya permintaan sewa kapal dari klien khususnya dari produsen batubara.


English Version

A. Business Sector

Rig Tender is a charter vessel company that have clients, oil and gas exploration as well as coal mining company.Rig tender is an affiliate of the Malaysian vessel company Scomi Marine Pte Ltd which is still one group with Scomy Energy Service Berhad. more than 80 % of all shares of the company belong to the parent company.

A company with 800 employees has office on Jalan Prof. Saharjo Jakarta. One of big contract is a contract (coal barging company contract) with PT Arutmin Indonesia amounting to 8.5. million tons of coal barging. Other clients are Adaro energy, Pertamina's Hulu Energy ONWJ Ltd, CNOOC, Total E&P, etc.

The biggest expense is for the purchase of fuel and lubricants. Concentrating on revenue of the largest three clients: Adaro Indonesia,  Arutmin Indonesia and Pertamina Hulu Energy ONWJ Ltd, those three companies have high leverage to Rig Tenders.

B. My Analysis

From the above table can be known if revenue in 2012 declined 21% compared to revenues in 2011. Reduced income due to the decline of coal demand from india and china which is affected by the stability of oil prices and also natural gas prices that are competitive and environmentally better. On the other hand china and india are experiencing declines in economic growth so that demand of energy also decreases.

China and India began to shift to natural gas energy sources which are derived from natural gas producers of Russia, USA and others.

The revenue decreases inversely proportional to the increase in net income that amounting to 802.9%. It is due to the improved gross profit margin slightly and also reduced costs which is result from declining of vessel impairment in 2012 compared to before. Vessel Impairment is calculated based on the value of use, fair value and the cost to sell the ship.

The revenue decreases, it is inversely to the increase in net operating cash flow but proportional to the increase in net income. Increase in net income is higher than the increase in net operating cash flow due to the decrease in vessel impairment such as the above explanation. Net operating cash flow rose because of the drop in interest expense in 2012 and decrease in the cost of fuel and lubricants in same year.

Receivable decreased 40% in 2012 compared to 2011 that is higher than the 21 % decrease in sales. Disbursement accounts receivable occurred quite significant because the company may experience problems in finding a new contract so that the majority cash inflow received is from existing contracts.

Decrease in inventory 48. 9% is greater than 21% revenue decline. The company does not need more supply of both lubricant and fuel supply because of the lack of demand from clients especially from coal producers.