Anxiety of crisis in 2015
In 1997 the economic crisis
started from Thailand and Malaysia, its currency exchange rate was slump to US
dollar. Then the crisis spread to other countries includes Indonesia. The
speculators used that momentum to attack the foreign reserves of the ASEAN’s
country to get gain in money market. Indonesia and Philippines needed more time
to recover from economic crisis. They took more than three years to fix their
economic condition.
At the past, Indonesia got loan
from IMF which was disbursed 3 times in two years. At the last aid, Indonesia
considered to the 50 point of understanding of proposal from IMF. The points
were apparently not matching with circumstances of Indonesian economic
condition. IMF did the same treatment for economic recovery package of Indonesia
with other countries such as South Korea and Mexico in 1995 and 1997
respectively.
In
2015, the crisis may be started from Malaysia; it was begin from the wall
street journal which was posted an article about the conjecture of corruption
by the prime ministry through 1st MDG foundation. He was reported
receive fund amounting to about USD 700 million through the foundation. The
case has deteriorated the stability of politic condition in Malaysia. The
opposite party started to do massive demonstration in its capital to ask the
prime ministry to resign.
The momentum had apparently been
used by the speculator to attack the Ringgit due to the economic and politic
issue in the country. Ringgit was experienced the worst decline in August among
of ASEAN’s currencies.
The current issue in Indonesia is
the case of the dwelling time in the sea port especially for Priok. The case
may relate with the previous regime, there was a friction between government
official who has different interest in the sea port.
NPL attained highest level since 2011, construction is the worst
Non Performing loan of banking
industry in Indonesia reached highest level since November 2011. The allowance
of bad loans soared due to its increase. The highest increase of bad debt
provision cost was CIMB Niaga. The
average increase of bad debt expense was 57 % year on year. Latest data from
OJK and the central bank said that the NPL ratio of banking industry in April
2015 was at 2.48 %.
The highest NPL rate was in
Construction sector which reached 5.5 %. The second was socio cultural,
community, entertainment, other individual services sector which was at 3.78 %,
followed by transportation and warehousing with 3.53%.
Market is irrational in Short Term ?
Although the macro indicator
showed particular data either positive or negative, the market is irrational in
the short term as Soros’ opinion and theory. The investor in money market tends
to decide for investing based on what the majority people do in the market and
based on issue and information in media.
Druckenmiller, the son of Soros,
was doing mistake in predicting US dollar currency movement. He bet the US
dollar falls, a decision was taken based on macro indicator, the increase of
current account deficit which indicates that the import side exceeds export
side.
Economic stimulus: 12 policies for banking sector
OJK planned to conduct policies
for economic stimulus; it consisted of stimulus for banking, Capital market,
non bank financial institution and Education and consumer protection. For
banking sector, OJK would like to implement 12 policies related with credit
risk and credit quality in encouraging the loan growth in Indonesia.
Company Analysis: Asset rose by Acquisition
Based on annual report In 2014
there was a significant increase of asset, it rose 80.4 percent up compared to
asset in 2013. The increase of asset was reached from acquisition of Pakuwon
Permai, Centrum Utama Permai and others. The company acquired PP with cost more
than IDR 2.34 trillion. The fund was attained from bonds amounting to more than
USD 200 million. Another acquisition was Centraum Utama Prima, the company
increased its share from 45 % in to 70 %. It set as controller position with
more than 50 % ownership.
The significant increase in asset
was property investment part, it rose from about 3 trillion rupiah in to 8
trillion rupiah.
In 2014 the sales increased 27.8
percent compared to sales in 2013. The company used equity method in
acquisition either PP or CUP that is why the sales did not increase
significantly. The company also got gain in purchasing companies with discount
price.
The gross margin in 2014 was
about 60 % in spite of there has been a slowdown in economic growth. According
to audited financial statement, the land yet not developed in 2014 was at 1,461,183,232
thousand rupiah, it increased from previous position which was at 438,535,058
thousand rupiah. Its biggest portion was at south Jakarta. Meanwhile, there was
also significant increase in its net income in 2014 compared to net income in
2013. It was more than double or above 128 % up due to acquisition as the above
explanation.
Real estate was the key driver in
2014 with largest contribution at more than 50 % of total sales. In spite of
there was a plan to change tax regulation for property the company seem still
able to show good performance in 2014.
Source: Mandiri institute:
Economic review , Annual report 2014
