BBRI

Fed Fund Rate: Psychology effect of tapering Tantrum

The fed in several times announced that they had a plan to raise their fund rate as US economic growth had started to recover in 2015. This acts triggered the investor to make decision in responding the announcement, global investor in emerging country tends to remove their fund from the country to another country which they assumed having lower risk. According to domestic newspaper in the early of July 2015, china had loss fund more than 35,000 trillion rupiah from its capital market. They might remove their money because the fed announced its plan to increase the fed fund rate in 2015.  

The Fed apparently did that action to search the respond from global investor, they may analyze where the money was removed by global investor after the fed made announcement about the fed fund rate.

Government should anticipate the raise of fed rate which may be lifted in September of 2015. They should not only increase its interest rate to maintain capital outflow but they should also do more than that, they have to establish better logistic distribution to decrease cost. Capital outflow which will be removed from capital market should be projected before September. The rapid increase of the fed rate will possibly be a deadly trigger for currency rate if the fed does that monetary policy. Despite central bank has hundred billions of foreign deposit, the worst scenario should be prepared. Our big domestic investors have changed in to global investor and they could act as global player. They will bring their money to lower risk country to save their asset. 80 % of economic growth has been driven by 20 % of the business people who own share in big company at Indonesia. These people have big portion of investment in capital market.  

We remember that the chaos in 1998 was triggered by high inflation rate which rupiah was sharply falling. In 1998 the richest people of Indonesia brought their asset to Singapore.

Slowdown in credit growth: from 20 dropped in to 10

The slowdown of credit growth in among of banks is caused by the shrink of commodity price which decreased export. In 2013 the credit growth was more than 20, 17 % which was higher than credit growth in 2014 which was at 11,6 %. In May of 2015 the credit growth was only less than 10 %.

There are many companies in commodity sector have postponed their business expansion and delayed to purchase good.

On other hand the non performing loan ratio of banking sector increased in 2015 due to slowdown of economy. The decline of demand for goods and services make the manufacture industry decreased their production and as the result of that several companies may have liquidity problem in pay their short term liabilities.

Company Analysis: Kupedes is the famous brand for customer

Government of Indonesia owns more than 56.75 % of total share. BRI is one of the best bank in Indonesia with good performance. The company seems focus in retail banking and micro banking. According to annual report of 2014, the biggest contribution of interest income was from loan for micro segment, it was more than 44 % of total interest income. In spite of that the biggest loan portion is loan for retail segment which was more than 50 % of total loan in 2014.  The interest rate of micro credit may need to be considered in order to increase loan for micro segment.

The famous brand is kupedes which was 36 % of total loan by its type. The company seems focus in developing its micro and retail segment by establishment of Teras BRI and Mobile Teras BRI. Based on annual report in 2014 there are 245 new mobile teras unit and 145 new Teras BRI unit.

The company seems plan to capture more in micro segment as the interest rate margin is promising. In 2014 net loan growth is more than 13.9 % higher than loan in 2013. The biggest contribution was credit in trading, hotel and restaurant segment by its economic sector.

Capital expenditure: rp 831 billion for satellite and rp 1,032 trillion for computer and machinery

In spite of economic slowdown in 2014, the company was still confident to expand its business by developing its technology. They purchased satellite for development and they have spent more than Rp1.03 trillion for computer and machinery. They increased its ATM from 18,292 units in to 20,792 units and they added EDC machine from 85,936s unit in to 131,204 units. They want to be the biggest national

payment bank in Indonesia. 

As the result of that they were able to increase its fee base income in 2014 compared to 2013. Although there are many achievement at domestic the company liquidated its subsidiary in hongkong. BRI was shutting down BRI finance ltd in Hongkong.

Opinion

I think BRI should use more part of his loan portfolio for youth entrepreneur because this is the biggest part of population. This could reduce unemployment in Indonesia and finally it could contribute economic growth for Indonesia. Mandiri is better in building this segment by creating entrepreneur program.

Back to back loan could be an option for this segment, the company could use csr program for giving back to back loan for business leader. Then leader will manage this loan for distributing for beginner entrepreneur.

The back to back loan is using revolving basis which let the debtor only pay the interest only during one period of facility. The purpose of the loan is financing working capital. If the business is failed the asset should be liquidated.