Since government decreased
subsidy for fuel in last of 2014, the inflation rate started to hike in to
higher rate. The circumstance has been worst as the Fed started to increase its
fund rate in first quarter of 2015. The psychological effect damaged rupiah
currency rate to US dollar. Now rupiah currency is approximately at 12,000 –
13,000 per US dollar.
As the result of that, the price
of goods and services commonly increase and the labor unions in several places
ask to the government to increase minimum wages payment to improve their
purchasing power.
Since the average total cost exceeds the
marginal revenue, there will be a gap which is its economic loss in the short
run. There may be an economic loss for company in oligopoly market type when
its average total cost increase due to higher total fixed cost and higher total
variable cost. The cost of fuel for
energy plantation has increased and so did with the cost of wages.
INDOFOOD CONSUMER BRANDED PRODUCT
- ICBP
The company has done several
acquisitions of several brands such as club, Pepsi and the Ichi Ocha, each of the products is reputable
product in each market. The company is controlled by its parent company PT
Indofood sukses makmur which is owned by salim group and families. The president
director is Anthony salim which is also the hold the same position in its
parent company.
The company used its fund from
IPO for shareholder loan payment and financing the capital expenditure.
According to annual report of 2013, the remaining balance of its fund was 1.97
trillion rupiah which was unused.
Instant noodle is still the
favorite product of the company, in 2013, its contribution to revenue was 67.8
% of total revenue. The second largest contribution was its dairy product with
18.6 % of total revenue. The new segment in 2013 was beverage segment which had
given 0.9 % of sales contribution.
The key driver of sales growth is
instant noodle product division. It is always introducing new taste and new
product which is made based on demand from recent market. In 2013, the sales
growth is 16 % up than sales of 2012. The sales growth in 2012 was 11.4 % and
it was slower than 2013.
The gross margin of 2013 had
fallen from about 27 % in to 26 % so did with net profit margin from about 10 %
in to about 9 % as we can see those ratios in the table at below. The higher
cost of fixed cost and variable cost may decrease the gross margin due to
higher inflation rate.
The cash cycle ratio was slightly
changing but it was still stable, it is indicated that the company has strong
position in the market.
The acquisition of brands such as
club and pepsi are expected increase the income growth and decrease its
dependency to noodle sales segment for sales contribution which was more than
50 % of total sales.
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014F
|
2015F
|
2016F
|
|
|
Cash
|
5,487,171.0
|
5,526,173.0
|
6,544,136.8
|
8,062,533.7
|
9,824,464.9
|
|
Short Term Investment
|
21,280.0
|
72,000.0
|
72,000.0
|
72,000.0
|
72,000.0
|
|
Trade Receivable
|
648,037.0
|
738,533.0
|
819,771.6
|
909,946.5
|
1,010,040.6
|
|
Inventories
|
1,816,459.0
|
2,868,722.0
|
3,222,130.1
|
3,576,564.4
|
3,969,986.5
|
|
Other Current Asset
|
1,949,715.0
|
2,116,287.0
|
2,349,078.6
|
2,607,477.2
|
2,894,299.7
|
|
Total Curr Asset
|
9,922,662.0
|
11,321,715.0
|
13,007,117.1
|
15,228,521.8
|
17,770,791.8
|
|
NPPE
|
3,869,239.0
|
4,844,407.0
|
5,587,955.3
|
6,061,444.7
|
6,490,320.8
|
|
Other Non Curr Asset
|
4,027,983.0
|
5,101,348.0
|
5,662,496.3
|
6,285,370.9
|
6,976,761.7
|
|
Total Non Curr Asset
|
7,897,222.0
|
9,945,755.0
|
11,250,451.6
|
12,346,815.6
|
13,467,082.5
|
|
Total Asset
|
17,819,884.0
|
21,267,470.0
|
24,257,568.7
|
27,575,337.5
|
31,237,874.3
|
|
Short Term Debt
|
582,625.0
|
979,380.0
|
1,000,000.0
|
1,000,000.0
|
1,000,000.0
|
|
Account Payable
|
1,193,345.0
|
1,628,821.0
|
1,829,481.3
|
2,030,724.2
|
2,254,103.9
|
|
Curr Portion of Long term debt
|
39,745.0
|
157,370.0
|
200,000.0
|
230,000.0
|
250,000.0
|
|
Other Curr Liabilities
|
1,832,354.0
|
1,931,012.0
|
2,143,423.3
|
2,379,199.9
|
2,640,911.9
|
|
Total Curr Liabilities
|
3,648,069.0
|
4,696,583.0
|
5,172,904.6
|
5,639,924.1
|
6,145,015.8
|
|
Long Term Debt
|
640,613.0
|
1,383,292.0
|
1,500,000.0
|
1,700,000.0
|
1,900,000.0
|
|
Deferred Taxes
|
530,291.0
|
498,504.0
|
498,504.0
|
498,504.0
|
498,504.0
|
|
Other Non Curr Liabilities
|
1,016,550.0
|
1,423,360.0
|
1,579,929.6
|
1,753,721.9
|
1,946,631.3
|
|
Total Non Curr Liabilities
|
2,187,454.0
|
3,305,156.0
|
3,578,433.6
|
3,952,225.9
|
4,345,135.3
|
|
Total Liabilities
|
5,835,523.0
|
8,001,739.0
|
8,751,338.2
|
9,592,150.0
|
10,490,151.0
|
|
Minorities
|
572,186.0
|
678,949.0
|
678,949.0
|
678,949.0
|
678,949.0
|
|
Common Share
|
583,095.0
|
583,095.0
|
583,095.0
|
583,095.0
|
583,095.0
|
|
Additional Paid Up Capital
|
5,985,469.0
|
5,985,469.0
|
5,985,469.0
|
5,985,469.0
|
5,985,469.0
|
|
Retained Earning
|
4,837,947.0
|
5,978,662.0
|
8,219,161.5
|
10,696,118.5
|
13,460,654.3
|
|
Other
|
5,664.0
|
39,556.0
|
39,556.0
|
39,556.0
|
39,556.0
|
|
Share holder Equity
|
11,412,175.0
|
12,586,782.0
|
14,827,281.5
|
17,304,238.5
|
20,068,774.3
|
|
S Equity & Minority Interest
|
11,984,361.0
|
13,265,731.0
|
15,506,230.5
|
17,983,187.5
|
20,747,723.3
|
|
Total SE,MI & Liabilities
|
17,819,884.0
|
21,267,470.0
|
24,257,568.7
|
27,575,337.5
|
31,237,874.3
|
|
Revenue
|
21,716,913.0
|
25,094,681.0
|
27,855,095.9
|
30,919,156.5
|
34,320,263.7
|
|
COGS
|
-15,666,785.0
|
-18,351,931.0
|
-20,612,771.0
|
-22,880,175.8
|
-25,396,995.1
|
|
Gross Profit
|
6,050,128.0
|
6,742,750.0
|
7,242,324.9
|
8,038,980.7
|
8,923,268.6
|
|
Operating Expense
|
-2,920,894.0
|
-3,643,809.0
|
-4,044,628.0
|
-4,489,537.1
|
-4,983,386.1
|
|
Depreciation n amortization
|
-283,543.0
|
-364,569.0
|
-456,451.7
|
-526,510.6
|
-571,123.9
|
|
Other Income / - expense
|
235,840.0
|
399,592.0
|
443,547.1
|
492,337.3
|
546,494.4
|
|
Interest Expense
|
-53,697.0
|
-165,225.0
|
-208,801.7
|
-225,200.0
|
-243,200.0
|
|
Pretax Income
|
3,027,834.0
|
2,968,739.0
|
2,975,990.7
|
3,290,070.3
|
3,672,052.9
|
|
Taxes
|
-745,463.0
|
-733,699.0
|
-735,491.2
|
-813,113.3
|
-907,517.1
|
|
Net Income
|
2,282,371.0
|
2,235,040.0
|
2,240,499.5
|
2,476,957.0
|
2,764,535.8
|
|
Financial Ratio
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014F
|
2015F
|
2016F
|
|
ROA
|
12.8
|
10.5
|
9.2
|
9.0
|
8.8
|
|
ROE
|
20.0
|
17.8
|
15.1
|
14.3
|
13.8
|
|
Gross Margin
|
27.9
|
26.9
|
26.0
|
26.0
|
26.0
|
|
Profit Margin
|
10.5
|
8.9
|
8.0
|
8.0
|
8.1
|
|
Current Ratio
|
2.7
|
2.4
|
2.5
|
2.7
|
2.9
|
|
Debt to asset
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
|
Interest Coverage
|
62.7
|
21.2
|
17.4
|
17.9
|
18.4
|
|
Dividend Pay Out Ratio
|
47.9
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
Days Payable
|
27.8
|
32.4
|
32.4
|
32.4
|
32.4
|
|
Days Inventory
|
42.3
|
57.1
|
57.1
|
57.1
|
57.1
|
|
Days Receivable
|
10.9
|
10.7
|
10.7
|
10.7
|
10.7
|
|
Free Cash Flow
|
-264,387.0
|
838,005.8
|
1,288,396.9
|
1,541,931.2
|
|
|
EBITDA
|
3,365,074.0
|
3,498,533.0
|
3,641,244.1
|
4,041,780.9
|
4,486,376.8
|
|
EPS
|
374.0
|
382.0
|
384.2
|
424.8
|
474.1
|
|
Revenue Growth
|
11.4
|
15.6
|
11.0
|
11.0
|
11.0
|
