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Saturday, February 14, 2015

MAYORA INDAH TBK - MYOR

Preliminary

Marhaenism or capitalism

That question is very difficult to explain, our recent government is formed by opposite group as the winner parties in election of 2014 which is adopted soekarno’s contemplation in national philosophy for economic, politic, culture and etc.  At recent day central bank is still self control in making policy for monetary sector. Central bank has independent right in setting monetary policy, controlling money supply, regulating banking system and issuing currency. It inclined to use capitalism concept of economy.  

Capitalism is an economic system in which investment in and ownership of the means of production, distribution, and exchange of wealth is made and maintained chiefly by private individuals or corporations, especially as contrasted to cooperatively or state-owned means of wealth. (http://dictionary.reference.com/).

Meanwhile, marhaenism system encourage individual or government to be more independent, free from exploitation by others.  Firstly, capital is used to produce good and service for own then secondly sell the surplus of the product to the market. In conclusion individual is encouraged to be able to be sel sufficient. Farmer and worker take the position not as production factor; the ideal condition is they produce goods and services that related with their needs to avoid exploitation. In addition, the system does not produce goods and services which are not needed yet by the market so it will be efficient.   (Source: Wikipedia)

According to the projection of Mckinsey & company, indonesian’s high-net-worth individual parked fund amounting to approximately 200 billion dollar in 2016. The fund will be invested in fixed income, stocks and bank deposit.

The ministry of finance said that they consider to give tax incentive for high net worth individual of indonesia for bringing back their money to indonesia. It is likely tax amnesty program in italy which is able to bring money amounted to about USD 100 billion.

If the money is invested in government bond and reducing oversea’s ownership, it will strengthen rupiah currency in money market.    

Will they implement marhaenism ?
That will be difficult to implement because they won under 50 % votes in the last election, on other hand the parliament is controled by the opposite groups.

Company analysis
Mayora Indah Tbk was owned by Unita Branindo which owns 32.93 % of total share. The company runs its business in food and beverage product with range of market for Asia region and local.    
The revenue of 2013 has increased 14 % up than revenue of 2012. The key driver of revenue growth is its food processing product; it was 55 % of total revenue in 2013. The rest was coffee powder, coffee instant and cocoa beans.

The revenue growth in 2013 was driven by the industry of food and beverage industry which was continue to grow as the demand of food and beverage product is stable in its growth. The 5 years average growth of the industry was at 5.27 % (source: Reuters).
The biggest part of total sales in 2013 was contributed by sales from domestic, it was 63% of total revenue and Asia was at second with 33 %.

On other hand, the gross margin in 2013 was at 27.13 %, it was higher than gross margin in 2012 which was about 24 %.

In 2013, trade receivable of related party, PT inbisco Niagatama semesta is bigger than trade receivable of third party. The trade receivable of related party was amounting to more than 2 trillion rupiahs. Trade receivable with third party was 746 billion in the same year. As the result of this, the company could control cost of sales more flexible. 

Consolidated subsidiaries comprise Sinar Pangan Barat, Sinar Pangan Timur, Mayora Nederland and Torabika Eka Semesta.

In 2013 the cash cycle of the company was improved than the cash cycle in 2012. Cash cycle in 2013 was at 38 days and cash cycle in 2012 was at 47 days. The company could generate cash faster in 2013 compared to 2012.










Saturday, February 7, 2015

LIPPO KARAWACI - LPKR




The Fed increased its rate, domestic economic growth has fallen

In 2014 the economic growth of indonesia is at 5.02 %. There is a significant decline in economic growth compared to its growth in 2013 which is at 5.8 %. the decline of exchange currency rupiah to US dollar may possibly be the biggest factor to the slower economic growth. As the fed has rised its fund rate, the foreign investor drawn their money and invest it back to america. The central bank has increased its rate to fight against inflation rate as the price level was starting to climb.
More than 30 % of government bond’s is owned by investor from oversea and indonesia used open market system such as floating exchange rate based on foreign exchange market. So when the investor from oversea sold their bonds and transferred their fund to US market the currency will fall and the price of good has rised as among of industries in indonesia still need to import goods for producing goods.  
Based on forecast of the world bank the growth will be at 5.2 % in 2015. On other hand the government has target to attain 5.6 % growth in 2015. They plan to start various infrastructure project in the second semester in 2015 and they believed that its project will be able to drive the economic growth.
The industry which is related government’s main plan of development predicted will incerase significantly include the property development and operation. Healthcare is one of prospective segment too in 2015 as the government has improved their social security with several programs such as BPJS, Kartu Indonesia sehat and etc.

Real estate industry
According to BPS the monthly average expenditure per capita for housing and household in 2013 slightly increase at 7 % compared to 2012. It may indicate that real estate market is still stable and the demand for property is still growing.  
Company analysis : High quality product in strategic place
Lippo karawaci is owned by Pacific Asia Holdings Ltd with more than 18 % of total share as the biggest share holder. The company is founded by James riyadi, one of the richest man in indonesia.
In 2013 the revenue increases 8.2 % up than 2012. It is lower than revenue growth in 2012 which is at 47 %. The healthcare segment is the key driver of revenue growth, its revenue contribution is at 38 % of total revenue.

According to audited annual report, the apartment sub segment of Large scale integrated development Segment is contributing the biggest part of total revenue.
In healthcare, there is siloam hospitals which operates in many big cities in indonesia. Meanwhile, in apartments sub segment, the company  has saint moritz apartment as the one of its reputable brand in apartment market.
Meanwhile, the gross profit margin in 2013 is 48 % of revenue, it has been improved compared to gross margin in 2012 which is at 47.3%.

According to audited annual report of 2013, the biggest part of total asset is inventory which is at 68 % of total asset. The capitalized borrowing costs of inventory are about IDR 989.553 million in 2013 and   IDR 373.269 in 2012. The majority part of the inventory is land under development which is about 54 % of inventory.

The company issued a global bonds amounting to USD 130,000 thousands in january 2013 and issued amounting to 119,229 thousands in april of 2013. The interest cost of both are capitalized at inventory part.
Majority of its land bank is located at Jakarta area, the company has many project in jakarta and across indonesia as shown at the Table of project.
The company concerns to develop high quality project at the strategic place, this strategy obviously needs expensive cost. Its brands such as saint moritz apartment,kemang village,aryaduta hotel and etc aims middle up customer.

In conclusion, the company has reputable brands in each segment in each market. There are various on goin projects in 2014. The company expects to get better performance in the future.

Forecast
The company is expected improve its margin include gross profit margin. and the most important thing the revenue growth will be risen more in the future.

annual report 2013

annual report 2013


annual report 2013

annual report 2013

annual report 2013

annual report 2013

source : annual report 2013






Monday, February 2, 2015

CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT TBK - CPTR



Financial analysis
Ciputra Development tbk is owned by Indonesian tycoon, ir. Ciputra and his family. They has more than 61 % of total share through PT.  Sang pelopor, a private company.
Accordance to annual report of 2013, the residential houses and shop houses segment is the key driver of their annual income. Its revenue contribution is 60 % of total revenue in 2013. The second biggest contribution of revenue is apartments segment.
In 2013 the company seems investing more fund for office tower segment, its revenue is enhanced 94.3 % up compared to income from office tower segment in 2012.
In 2013 total revenue increase 52.8 % up compared to revenue of 2012. The gross margin stays on 52.1 of total revenue. It is higher than 5 years average growth of its industry by reuters, which is at 51 %. In 2013 the biggest asset of the company is at its inventory. The company may have many ongoing projects at over all Indonesia. The portion of inventory is 24 % of total asset and its capitalized borrowing cost is 9,061 million in 2012 and 21,720 million in 2013 respectively. And the capitalized borrowing costs of investment property and fixed asset are 28,975 million in 2012 and 9,889 million in 2013. 
The company has 56 projects in 2013, these consist residential houses, shop houses, apartment, shopping center, hotel, hospital, family club and others.
The activity ratio is getting better in 2013 compared to 2012. The cycle is shorter than before the company is able to generate more cash in the same period.
The company is quiet liquid; both in 2012 and 2013 have better current ratio, consecutively 1.56 and 1.36.  On other hand, the company has added its bank loan to finance the project 2013.

Forecast
The revenue growth is predicted about 20 % up, the forecasting is taken based on 5 years average revenue growth of property development and operator industry (reuters). Despite CAGR of revenue in period of 2009 -2013 is 39 %, the lower assumption is taken because of the political situation.
The assumption of gross profit margin, activity ratio and net additional of fixed asset are adjusted as the same condition of 2013.